How the engine works.

This page is the contract behind every slip we publish: what is modelled, how a slip qualifies, how it is staked, how it is settled, and what we will never claim. The proof for all of it is the public ledger.

The engine is data-driven and deterministic — the same inputs always produce the same read, and every call is reproducible after the fact. No hunches, no hot streaks, no random seed to cherry-pick.

Across football and tennis it scores each fixture against thousands of data points — team and player form, scoring and concession rates, matchup history, surface and venue, match context — and distils all of it into a single model confidence for every market it considers. Tennis is partitioned hard from football: singles only, ATP and WTA, no cross-sport slips, ever.

Every market gets a model confidence. A slip only qualifies when its picks — and the slip as a whole — clear our confidence bar. The bar is a hard gate, not a soft penalty: a near-miss is a miss.

Odds never decide what we pick. The model ranks on its own read of the outcome; prices attach afterwards, only for display and settlement. A juicy price can't argue a weak pick in, and a short price can't argue a strong one out.

The corollary: if nothing clears the floors, nothing is published. Quiet days are published as quiet — no padded slate, no junk legs to fill a schedule.

Every slip is staked at a flat 1.0 unit. This is enforced in code — the stake field in our system literally cannot hold another value. There is no martingale, no doubling after a loss, no stake-by-conviction sizing. Slip shapes are capped per product, and the ROI we report is net units returned per unit staked under that flat discipline.

One deliberate exception: football singles are generated continuously — often many per fixture — as an unstaked learning and calibration track, and they never enter the staked ledger. The football ledger records the 2-leg core shape and upwards, each at flat 1.0 unit. Tennis singles remain staked products and settle on the ledger like every other slip.

Prices are locked at the bookmaker's pre-kickoff line — Bet365 first, with a fallback chain — in the run-up to kickoff. What the ledger pays on is the price you could actually have taken, not a synthetic estimate; where a provisional price is later corrected to the real closing line, the original is kept for audit.

After full-time a settlement job grades every leg from the final match data. The rules are standard sportsbook treatment:

• —any leg lost → the slip settles lost, −1.00u
• —all legs won → the slip pays the combined odds of the surviving legs, minus the stake
• —a void leg drops from the slip and the remaining legs decide at recomputed odds; a fully void slip returns its stake, 0.00u

Every settled slip lands on the public ledger and stays there. The ledger is append-only: losses are shown as plainly as wins, never edited, never deleted, never filtered out of the headline numbers.

• —No guaranteed returns. Betting involves losing runs. The ledger shows ours, in full.
• —Signals are model reads, not certainties. A leg the model puts at 60% loses four times in ten — that is the read working, not failing.
• —Small samples are small. Per-product records start thin and we publish them anyway, with the sample size next to the percentage. We will not dress a 20-slip record up as a track record.
• —The model is not quietly re-fit. Calibration against settled results is monitored continuously, but drift raises an alert for a human — the model is never auto-tuned to flatter the record.
• —18+ only.We publish model reads; we don't place bets. Never stake what you cannot afford to lose — responsible gambling.